“Pray.”
This was the simple but serious advice of National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) Regional Corporate Executive Ed Calabio to Mindanaoans who are currently faced with a power crisis of epic proportions. We’ve seen worse, of course, but this current crisis is threatening to be the mother of all power crises because of the possible harm it can do to the country’s democracy.
The question has been asked over and over again in the past weeks as brownouts became more and more frequent in Mindanao: what would happen if a brownout of even one hour hits the island on May 10, election day? The result would surely be a derailed election as millions are unable to vote, and with no one declared winner, especially in the presidential race, the current resident of Malacañang would have reason to extend her term — perhaps indefinitely.
Is that a possibility? Should we be worried that the frequent brownouts are going to extend up to May 10? The short answer is yes. According to Ed, the problem is caused simply by low power supply, in Mindanao’s case a deficit of 390 megawatts (MW) or by about 32 percent. This is attributed mainly to limited available capacities from hydro power plants, most of which have water reservoirs that are drying up due to El Niño. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said the prolonged dry spell caused by El Niño will persists up to May. “El Niño is here, El Niño is real,” Ed said during Monday’s Kapehan sa Dabaw held at SM City Davao.
The problem is that Mindanao is 51 percent dependent on hydro power, making it vulnerable to the vagaries of nature. Everything is fine during regular seasons when rainfall is regular, but let El Niño rear its ugly head and we are done for. Couple this with the fact that no new power investors have come in and we have the ingredients of a disaster.
“Hydro power is both a blessing and a curse for Mindanao,” Ed said. “It is a blessing because we have low power rates, but it is a curse because no one is putting in new power generators.” There is simply no incentive for power investors to pour in money in Mindanao because they will not be able to recoup their expenses. “This is how they think: ‘Why put up power plants in Mindanao when I can get higher returns in Luzon?’”
The crisis is worsening by the day, and each day that does not bring rain takes us closer to the brink of disaster. An NGCP press release dated March 1, 2010 says there has been an 80 percent reduction in the capabilities of National Power Corporation (Napocor) Agus Hydro-Electric Power Plants. Pulangi, also owned by Napocor, experienced 90 percent reduction in capabilities. Lake Lanao elevation as of 6 a.m. on March 1 was 699.08 meters, which is below the critical level of 699.15 meters.
If this condition persists, we are looking at the very real possibility of brownouts extending up to May 10, the day of the election. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) has said Napocor could mitigate the problem by saving up energy two days before May 10 so as to ensure that there would be uninterrupted supply on the crucial day. Ed, however, said no one really knows what is going to happen weather-wise in the coming weeks, or even how much water the hydro plants really have. It could well be that Napocor would need to save up water for its hydro power plants two weeks before election day.
And “saving up” power is not as easy as it sounds, particularly for us consumers. It would mean NGCP curtailing power for even longer periods just so there would be enough reserve to power up Mindanao for that one crucial day. In other words, we would have to suffer through several hours of brownouts for several days — perhaps as long as two weeks — just to be able to vote on May 10.
So what should we do? Ed said there are a number of “doable” steps that can be taken, including resuming the operations of the Iligan Diesel Power Plant (IDPP) which could add 35 MW to the grid; contracting additional power generators (if there are any); operating embedded generators (such as the Bajada power plant of Davao Light and Power Company) to ease the load on the grid; and urging private establishments like malls to use their generators instead of tapping the grid.
More than these however, Ed said it is important for the people to pray. “Pray for rain in the right places,” he said. The hydro plants need 120 square meters of water to run through per second to be able to generate the 700 MW the island needs; currently, the rate is at only 30 square centimeters per second.
So the answer is more water, and in the end, it is God who will save us. “Pray that God will send more rain,” Ed said. echoing the prayer of the prophet Zechariah: “Ask rain from the LORD at the time of the spring rain — The LORD who makes the storm clouds; And He will give them showers of rain, vegetation in the field to each man.” (Zechariah 10:1)
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